The analyst noted that, as more results filtered through, some trends appeared to be developing differently from what early projections had suggested.
The DA’s claim that more than one million black South Africans voted for the party for the first time may mark a historic political breakthrough, but it’s too early to confirm whether the milestone has been achieved.
This is according to North-West University political analyst Professor André Duvenhage.
Black voters
DA Federal Council first deputy chairperson Ashor Sarupen on Thursday announced that the party’s internal projections showed more than one million black South Africans had backed the DA in the local government elections and that it was on track to receive more support from black voters than the EFF.
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View Map“The projections also indicate that the DA will have received more votes from black South Africans in this election than the EFF, making us a mainstream party in every community, whether you are black, white, coloured, or Indian,” he told The Citizen.
Caution
Duvenhage told The Citizen that while such an outcome was possible, he cautioned against drawing definitive conclusions while vote counting was still underway.
“I don’t think it is impossible for them to get there, but at this point in time the number of uncertainties are just too much to make an accurate prediction,” Duvenhage said.
The DA has hailed the projected result as evidence that traditional racial voting patterns are weakening, arguing that voters are increasingly prioritising governance and service delivery over historical political loyalties.
Results
However, Duvenhage said the emerging results did not yet point to a dramatic political realignment.
“We have just listened to the IEC. They are not very specific when it comes to figures,” he said.
The analyst noted that as more results had filtered through, some trends appeared to be developing differently from what early projections suggested.
“Since about 12% of the voting going to 25%, I have picked up an increase in ANC support. I have seen the DA going a percentage or two down. I have seen ActionSA in certain provinces performing very well,” he said.
DA needs support
Despite his caution, Duvenhage acknowledged that the DA would likely need substantial support from black voters to achieve its projected performance nationally.
“For the DA to achieve 25% to 27%, they are most probably going to need about a million black voters,” he said.
At the same time, he believes the broader contours of the election remain largely unchanged.
ANC results
Duvenhage said the ANC still appeared to be heading towards a result in the low-to-mid 30% range nationally, while the DA was tracking in the mid-20s.
He also predicted a strong showing by the MK party in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), while suggesting the EFF could finish in the high single digits or low double digits.
Voting patterns
Duvenhage warned that many of the most significant shifts in voting patterns may not yet be reflected in the available data.
“We are still waiting for the more drastic changes to take place,” he said.
He also questioned whether some of the smaller parties currently posting stronger-than-expected numbers would maintain those levels once more results were captured.
Race-based politics
While the DA has framed its projected black voter breakthrough as proof that South Africa is moving beyond race-based politics, Duvenhage said the evidence available so far points to a more familiar electoral picture.
“What I’m reading here at the moment is that we are more or less working with business as usual and as was expected,” he said.
His assessment suggests that while the DA’s claim of attracting more than one million black voters could ultimately prove correct, the final election results will determine whether the party has truly achieved the political watershed moment it is celebrating or whether the outcome falls within South Africa’s already established electoral trends.
