Eskom’s plan for no summer blackouts ‘not foolproof’

Eskom’s plan to avoid blackouts this summer relies heavily on power from under-construction power stations Medupi and Kusile despite warnings against this.

Yesterday, the power utility announced plans to add unit 2 of Kusile and unit 2 from Medupi to the national grid, which was expected to serve demand for an estimated 30,000KW for the summer months.

Delivering Eskom’s quarterly state of the system presentation, chief operating officer Jan Oberholzer stressed that while load shedding could not be ruled out at least for the next two years, Eskom’s core focus going into early next year was to avoid load shedding.

Part of that plan included the handing over of a unit at Medupi by the end of this month for commercial use, and likewise another unit at Kusile by the end of the year.

According to energy expert Chris Yelland, these units represented 5% of the estimated demand.

He said given that neither unit was in commercial use yet, Eskom’s summer plan had a larger margin of error, meaning there was a higher chance of load shedding.

With debt estimated at R450 billion, the cash-strapped entity was on a quest to raise capital of R46 billion.

It had only raised half using various vehicles, including international bonds. Government bailouts were keeping it afloat at the moment.

A lower demand than in winter was expected and coupled with coal supply of 20 days, this pointed to a less than bleak outlook for summer.

But, Oberholzer pointed out, risk factors remained a concern. Particularly the number of trips in the system, which indicated plants were unreliable and unpredictable.

Eskom has exceeded its targeted cap of 90 trips this year, with 249 recorded to date.

The estimated cost of completing Kusile, according to the latest figures, was R161 billion in the worst-case scenario. This excluded interest during construction of R62 billion.

Medupi’s cost of completion was R145 billion in the worst-case scenario, with interest to add R45 billion, according to Yelland. He said emission control technology at Medupi would add R38 billion.

– simnikiweh@citizen.co.za

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