KZN conference outcome threatens Ramaphosa’s second term, ANC’s step-aside rule

The much talked about provincial elective conference of the African National Congress (ANC) in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) has come and gone, and the focus now shifts to the coming policy conference scheduled to begin on Thursday.

The agenda for the policy conference is likely to be topped by the contentious step-aside rule, to which the KZN’s new leadership has made their opposition abundantly clear.

The province had to do without former eThekwini mayor Zandile Gumede, after she was forced to decline a nomination this past weekend, due to said rule.

Also Read: Newly elected ANC KZN leadership calls for scrapping step-aside rule

The election of the current crop of leaders in the province also complicates the situation for president Cyril Ramaphosa, as most on the slate are considered to be supporters of former president Jacob Zuma.

This means Ramaphosa is unlikely to have their support for his re-election in the upcoming electoral conference in December.

The chairmanship position went to Sboniso Duma, while the influential provincial secretary one went to Bheki Mtolo.

Both Duma and Mtolo are from the so-called ‘Taliban’ faction, known to be sympathetic to Zuma.

Duma amassed 930 of the votes while the ousted chairperson, Sihle Zikala, only managed to get 665 of the votes.

Scrap the step-aside rule

Speaking to The Citizen on Monday morning, political analyst Dr Ntsikelelo Breakfast said the step-aside rule, which has already affected some prominent ANC leaders such as the suspended ANC secretary general Ace Magashule and Gumede, will definitely be challenged at the coming Policy Conference.

Addressing delegates after his election, newly-elected KZN provincial secretary, Bheki Mtolo, also said conference had resolved for a complete proposal that says the step-aside rule must not only be reviewed, but it must be completely scrapped.

Zikalala didn’t do his homework

Reacting further on the conference at the weekend, Breakfast said the outcome was completely unexpected.

“I would have thought that the former provincial chairperson, Sihle Zikalala, would have done his ground work ahead of the conference,” said Breakfast.

“I think it was the Zuma factor that cost him his re-election. You’ll remember his words in recent years when he said it was wrong to support Zuma in court and that his leadership will not use ANC structures to mobilize support for Zuma in future.”

There was also talk prior to the conference about what it would mean for Ramaphosa in the event that pro-Zuma factions in KZN emerged victorious.

Ramaphosa’s national elective conference headache

On Ramaphosa finally deciding to address the conference despite statements to the contrary earlier in the day, Breakfast said he must have been advised to do so as he found himself stuck between a rock and a hard place.

“Had he decided against addressing the conference, that would have created an interpretation that says KZN is a no-go area for some leaders of the ANC, but I think it was a wise move on his part,” Breakfast added.

Also Read: Ramaphosa gambles presidency if he addresses KZN conference

Another political analyst, Theo Venter, is of the opinion that the outcomes of the conference has added to the complexities of the party’s upcoming national elective conference in December.

“To be elected (re-elected) to the Top 6 you need a significant portion of KZN branch delegate support, due to the fact that KZN represents about 25% of branch delegates,” said Venter.

“A second complication is that the elected RET (radical economic transformation) orientated Top 5 in KZN will very soon start lobbying for an own slate of leaders for December, opposing the CR22 nominees.”

Theo Venter

He said with the Policy Conference having a programme of 187 pages to work through, it is KZN and Gauteng who will push for the step-aside rule as the major issue.

On Ramaphosa’s decision to address the conference, Venter said he had no choice.

“A compromise was made to allow Ramaphosa to talk and to have Duma ending the conference.

“That honour is usually that of the President, but last night Duma did the final word,” Venter added.

KZN remains the biggest province for the ANC when it comes to support base and the party undoubtedly needs it to maintain its hold on power nationally. This means plenty of work will have to be done to appease them, and Ramaphosa would have to ensure he has support in most of the other provinces if he wishes to have a second term.

Meanwhile, some of the other provinces that have already held their elective conference include Limpopo, Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga.

The outstanding ones to watch, include North West and the Free State, both of which have in the past been contentious, and whose conferences are scheduled in August and September, respectively.

Not a slam dunk for Zuma faction yet

Duma has made it clear that they have some issues with the country’s judiciary, especially when it comes to how Zuma was treated by the State Capture Commission, leading to his incarceration last year.

Breakfast is of the view that the current power squabbles, within the party, are all about people vying for positions of power in order to have access to the economic resources of the state.

Also Read: “What has Zuma done?” Delegates burst into song as ANC KZN conference gets underway

“At the moment Zuma is not protected, he is vulnerable,” he said.

Breakfast does not believe the Zuma sympathisers have enough support to force their demands down the throats of the ANC’s Ramaphosa faction.

“I think they (Zuma faction) would still need to get support from other provinces and if Ramaphosa were to step down, who’s there to take over? I don’t think [Ronald] Lamola (Ramaphosa loyalist) would be vouched as some believe he is still young,” Breakfast said.