Mbalula has been under fire for the ANC's failure to submit councillor candidate lists on time.
Experts believed Mbalula has done poorly as ANC secretary-general.
Political analysts believe Fikile Mbalula’s performance as ANC secretary-general will hurt his ambitions to become the party’s president at its 56th elective conference next year.
Mbalula has recently faced scrutiny over the party’s failure to submit its councillor candidate lists to the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) on time, a setback that could affect the party in several municipalities.
He has also been criticised for several court challenges that the ANC has lost, the latest one being a case against the IEC in the Electoral Court.
ANC candidate lists
On Sunday in Limpopo, Mbalula told ANC supporters at a rally that he had noted the attacks against him, but he described himself as an “iron rod” that cannot be bent and an “ocean” that swallows all bad things.
“Because I know that you [have given] me this difficult task, when we face challenges, all of those challenges will be pointed towards the secretary-general, and I am the engine; I am the boss of the ANC. Others do not like it when I say that, but the boss of the ANC and the engine is the SG,” said Mbalula.
He also denied tampering with the councillor candidate lists. Instead, he said the party had put forward its best candidates to represent the party in various municipalities.
“We must never allow anyone to embark on activities of seeking to undermine our cohesion,” he said.
‘The weakest link’
Political analyst Andre Duvenhage told The Citizen on Tuesday that Mbalula’s handling of several critical matters, including the submission of councillor candidate lists, will affect his political ambitions in the party.
“The ANC over the last two decades has been going from crisis to crisis; this is reflected in the respective positions of their secretaries-general. We are thinking about Kgalema Motlanthe, we are talking about Ace Magashule, but out of all of them, Fikile Mbalula is the weakest link of them all at a time that is absolutely critical,” he said.
Is Mbalula’s campaign losing steam?
Duvenhage believes that Mbalula’s competence will not be the only factor determining whether he becomes ANC president at next year’s elective conference.
“Looking at what is going on in the ANC, what happened in the 2024 elections, what is predicted in the 2026 elections, I cannot see him being in a stronger position to contest any position, from president to deputy president down to even maintaining his own position of secretary-general.”
Another political analyst, Theo Neethling, told The Citizen on Tuesday that Mbalula’s image has been dented by the setbacks he has experienced as the ANC’s secretary-general.
“A few weeks ago, Mbalula was able to position himself relatively easily as one of the obvious future leaders of the ANC. Following the candidate list crisis, the court defeat, and the ensuing internal accusations, that position is noticeably more precarious.
“The key question now is not merely whether he survives the current criticism, but whether he can succeed in restoring his image as an effective organisational leader after the November election.
“A poor ANC result would likely increase the pressure further; a result that preserves the party’s position better than expected could, conversely, create some breathing room for him,” said Neethling.
List debacle
However, Neethling said it is too early to declare Mbalula out of the 2027 ANC succession race based on current events. But he said Mbalula should take responsibility for the councillor candidate list “debacle”.
“As secretary-general of the ANC, Fikile Mbalula bears a significant degree of political accountability for the candidate list debacle, as he heads the party’s organisational and administrative operations.
“The issue is particularly serious because the ANC’s lists were finalised and submitted very close to the IEC’s deadline, whereas the party’s own procedures provided for completion much earlier.”
Neethling said there is already considerable internal criticism of Mbalula from senior ANC leaders.
“According to recent reports, at least nine members of the national executive committee (NEC) have expressed the view that Mbalula should be held personally accountable. The fact that the ANC’s own internal investigation also revealed shortcomings in the verification of candidate details makes it difficult to attribute the entire problem simply to an IEC technical error.”
