Weather experts say a likely El Niño could increase the risk of drought, heatwaves and severe thunderstorms across South Africa.
The World Meteorological Organisation says El Niño conditions are strengthening, increasing the risk of extreme weather across South Africa. Picture: iStock
Predictions of a moderate to strong El Niño this coming summer should not to be taken lightly or ignored, say experts.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific have fuelled El Nino conditions, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months.
WMO warns of a potentially strong El Niño
A new WMO El Niño/La Niña update indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June-August, with the probability of it continuing until at least November near or above 90%.
WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said SA will need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves, both on land and in the ocean.
Saulo said it is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern US, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drier conditions over southern Africa, Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.
WMO also issued a global seasonal climate update which projects a nearly universal dominance of above-normal temperatures in nearly all parts of the globe from June to August.
Rising temperatures increase extreme weather risks
It further found that these increase the risks of heat stress and compounding hazards in some regions and accelerate the development of drought conditions where rainfall is reduced.
Rainfall probabilities were typical of El Niño patterns, which were likely to contribute to a greater probability of extremes in increased rainfall and flooding, as well as drier conditions and droughts.
Local weather forecaster Juandre Vorster, also known as the Weather Hooligan, said global temperatures have risen by around 2ºC in many regions compared with the past and that the warmer air was capable of holding significantly more moisture.
“That extra moisture can provide additional energy for thunderstorms, leading to stronger updrafts and more unstable atmospheric conditions. This means we could see warmer and more humid summers, along with an increase in the intensity of thunderstorms.
“Higher humidity also raises the potential for more frequent lightning and stronger electrical activity, creating the conditions for severe storms,” he said.
Agriculture faces mounting weather threats
Vorster said one of the biggest concerns was the possibility of larger hail.
“Powerful thunderstorms with stronger updrafts can keep hailstones suspended for longer, allowing them to grow before falling to the ground. If the right atmospheric ingredients come together, this could increase the risk of damaging hailstorms across parts of South Africa.
“These heat-induced thunderstorms could also have significant impacts on agriculture. Intense hail, torrential rainfall, strong wind gusts and frequent lightning have the potential to damage farmers’ crops, reducing yields and causing financial losses.
“Livestock may also be affected, with animals exposed to severe weather, lightning, flash flooding and extreme heat placing additional stress on farming operations,” he said.
Vorster said while it was still too early to predict exactly how the coming season will unfold; the combination of La Niña and a warming climate is worth watching closely.
