Gauteng braces for Covid-19 surge as holidaymakers return

It is too soon to tell whether Gauteng will soon overtake Eastern Cape and Western Cape in Covid-19 infections due to thousands travelling back into the province, but a heightened infection rate is expected, experts say.

Gauteng could soon become another super-spreader province due to the annual December relocation with thousands returning from their holidays.

With the festive period drawing to a close, at least 1 600 cars travelled per hour from KwaZulu-Natal into Gauteng at the weekend. Thousands more were coming back from Mpumalanga, Limpopo and North West, the Road Traffic Management Corporation (RTMC) said.

The large influx of people from other areas, including hotspot provinces such as Western Cape, Eastern Cape, did not bode well for the province, said epidemiologist Professor Jo Barnes.

“That means they will be introducing more infections. The annual relocation that is going to happen from rural [and other] areas where people went to visit, and back to their place of work is going to mean a heightened number of cases for Gauteng.

“All the provinces which we call net-receiving provinces – where there are more people coming in than leaving – means that we will have an inflow of infections. I expect there is going to be a peak,” she said.

Public health expert Professor Alex van den Heever said due to restrictions on social gatherings, the liquor ban and a curfew, new infections in the province could remain stable as the main culprits were super-spreader events, which were now prohibited.

“I don’t think [infections] will be affected by movement of people from one province to another. It doesn’t mean infected people won’t come in but the risk they pose domestically depends on how local conditions are organised.

“For example, if they go to a crowded setting and infect other people at once.

“The most that would happen is infecting family members and if people are coming back to work – some are working from home in many cases.

“Gatherings are prohibited and effectively, the restrictions targeted gatherings as those are the risk areas.”

Those travelling into the province could be subjected to antigen tests at police roadblocks. Gauteng coronavirus command council’s Thabo Masebe said the antigen tests would be done at no cost to motorists.

“We are aware that the number of people contracting Covid-19 in the province will increase but as that happens we need to be ready and that is why we are increasing the testing so we can help to diagnose the infections early on so those who are infected can take steps to self-isolate,” he said.

But Barnes said what might seem like a response to the pandemic could be a pointless exercise that would not curb infections and instead cause heavy congestion on roads.

“Antigen testing is also late. It takes about three weeks or more after you have had the infection that it turns into antibodies [to be tested]… If the test reads positive, [they] will send that person on anyway.”

rorisangk@citizen.co.za

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