Greatest race: All eyes turn to the Arc this weekend

The Prix de l’arc de Triomphe in France is generally known as Europe’s greatest horse race – and sometimes even as the best race in the world.

Yet, outside racing’s cognoscenti, few people are familiar with it. The likes of the Kentucky Derby, the Melbourne Cup and the Grand National – even the Dubai World Cup – are more prominent in popular culture and common chatter around the globe.

The epithet ‘greatest’ is fitting, though.

To start with, the €5 million (R93 million) purse is the biggest in European racing.

Then, the 2400m journey around ParisLongchamp racecourse is described as “the ultimate athletic test”, demanding a rare mix of raw speed, stamina and acceleration.

The Arc is positioned on the calendar to be an ultimate showdown between the top performing horses in Europe – and, in recent years, from Japan.

Raced since 1920, it has, over time, acquired unique prestige as a global reference point for elite thoroughbred breeding. A host of past winners have gone on to become stud superstars.

All this sometimes sees the Arc named tops in the world.

Festival of nations

Race operator France Galop has seized the marketing opportunity, with its website announcing a “Festival of Nations” this coming race weekend, “to cultivate a World Cup atmosphere”.

France Galop keeps galloping: “Considered the de facto world championship of thoroughbred racing, this unmissable event brings
together the finest horses and jockeys from around the globe… Broadcast in more than 60 countries [it] stirs the passions of horse racing enthusiasts the world over… ParisLongchamp welcomes nearly 35,000 spectators from all walks of life each year, creating a unique atmosphere.”

So, this Sunday afternoon, we’d better be paying attention. And that means seeking out the right horse to back.

The UK’s Racing Post says analysing historical trends is the best way to go about it. Over the 100-plus-year history, patterns of age, sex, prep runs and class have consistently repeated themselves.

A weight-for-age allowance gives three-year-olds a distinct advantage over older rivals. Since 1994, three-year-olds have won 20 out of 31 Arcs.

Superstars like Sea The Stars (2009), Treve (2013), Enable (2017) and Ace Impact (2023) all won as three-year-olds.

In contrast, five-year-olds and older face an uphill battle. There have been only nine successful five-year-olds in history. Even greats like Enable and Treve were defeated when trying to win at an older age.

Other historical trends

While colts win their fair share, fillies and mares have a wonderful strike rate. Females have won 26 renewals in total and recently have completely taken over, with champions like Bluestocking (2024), Alpinista (2022), Enable (2017 and 2018), Found (2016) and Treve (2013 and 2014).

Back-to-back winners are not very common, so last year’s champion Daryz has history stacked against him. Mares Enable and Treve managed consecutive wins, but no male horse has won back-to-back Arcs since Alleged in 1978. Eight elite colts have tried and failed since then.

Proven class and stamina are mandatory: 11 of the last 12 winners had won a Group 1 race earlier in their career; 10 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous career victory over 2400m; and 90% of recent winners had won two or more Group 1s before taking the Arc, proving that only true elite-tier horses succeed.

Look for single-digit odds: 22 of the last 30 winners were priced in single digits. An exception to this rule is muddy conditions, with German raider Torquator Tasso having shocked on a heavy track at 80/1 in 2021.

However, the weather forecast for Sunday in Paris is clear skies – which trainer Francis Graffard says will be perfect for his defending champ Daryz, the ruling ante-post favourite.

Arc betting

7-4 Daryz (4yo colt)

5-1 Maltese Cross (3 f)

7-1 Kalpana (5 m)

9-1 Diamond Necklace (3 f), Thundering On (3 f)

14-1 Varandir (3 c)

20-1 Minnie Hauk (4 f)