Punters can beat the odds if they think smartly and spot value.
Underdogs are still alive and kicking in sport, even in this era of professionalism, data and algorithms. A couple of shock results in high-profile matches at the weekend proved it.
Sekhukhune United rocked mighty Orlando Pirates 1-0 in a Betway Premiership opening fixture to gladden the hearts of neutrals, their fans in Limpopo and those punters brave enough to chance a few rands on them.
Sekhukhune were at 6.00 for the away win (with Pirates at 1.48 and the draw at 3.40), long odds for a contest between two sides in the same league.
The betting board told a story: last year’s league runners-up Pirates had the player strength, home fan support and historical aura to make short work of upstarts Sekhukhune.
But there was subtext to this story, which a few clever punters managed to decipher: Pirates had a new coach and seven new players, leaving them vulnerable to disjointedness and a smash-and-grab from a well-organised team that has been on an upward trajectory for a couple of years.
Over in Pretoria, in rugby’s Currie Cup, home side the Bulls (1.01) were hot favourites to beat the Pumas (10.00). Again, the signal from the data analysts and odds-setters was that it would be one-way traffic.
And it was. Just not the way they thought it would be! The Pumas steamrollered their fancied opponents 41-7.
Again, smart followers of the game might have seen that the visitors were a mature, settled outfit, while the Bulls – also with a new coach – fielded youth and brilliance but relative inexperience in the trenches of an ultra-tough battlefield.
Lesson learnt?
Successfully backing outsiders is not easy and looking to beat the odds shouldn’t be any bettor’s only strategy. But an eye should always be kept open for the value gap.
If odds are long, a wager can be modest yet yield a pleasing return.
