The matric pass rate is not a small achievement in a system that still operates under deep structural inequality.
South Africa’s 2025 National Senior Certificate (NSC) results, released on Monday by Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube, offer a rare combination in the country’s long-troubled education story: progress that deserves recognition, alongside warning signs that cannot be ignored.
The headline figure, an 88% national pass rate, the highest in South Africa’s history, is significant. More than 656 000 pupils passed matric, with KwaZulu-Natal topping the provincial rankings at 90.6%.
For the first time, all 75 education districts achieved pass rates above 80%.
But the real value of the 2025 results lies not only in how many students passed, but in how many stayed long enough to write matric in the first place.
A system losing fewer learners — slowly
For decades, South Africa’s schooling system has been defined by what happens before matric: large numbers of learners quietly disappear between Grades 10 and 12, often due to poverty, repetition, or lack of support. This year’s data suggests that pattern may be easing albeit unevenly.
“The percentage of learners who were unable to sit for any of their exam papers has fallen sharply, from around 17% in 2017 to around 2% today,” Gwarube said.
The majority of candidates were also 18 years old, pointing to improved on-time progression. Fewer part-time repeat candidates wrote the exams, indicating that fewer learners are trapped in prolonged cycles of failure.
Civil society organisation Zero Dropout Campaign (ZDC) described the 2025 results as a “second consecutive record-breaking year” and congratulated students who reached matric “under increasingly complex and demanding circumstances”.
This is not a small achievement in a system that still operates under deep structural inequality.
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The dropout crisis is not over
Yet praise must be measured. ZDC cautioned that South Africa continues to lose pupils long before matric, estimating that “four in ten students who begin Grade 1 will not matriculate or achieve an alternative qualification”.
The organisation warned against equating improved pass rates with a healthy system.
“Dropout is rarely a sudden or purely academic decision, but rather the result of cumulative socioeconomic stressors on learners over time,” ZDC said.
Its programme director, Merle Mansfield, was blunt: “If we are to improve our national throughput, completion, and post-school success, psychosocial and well-being support must be treated as a core part of the education system, not an optional add-on.”
Gwarube acknowledged this reality, linking performance to hunger, safety and mental health, and committing to prioritise learner wellbeing in 2026.
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Hope rooted in honesty, not spin
The minister was notably cautious in her assessment, repeatedly warning against reading matric results in isolation.
“The biggest system-health test is not only the pass rate, but whether students stay the course from the early grades through to Grade 12,” she said.
That framing matters. While the system shows signs of stabilising, serious challenges remain, particularly in gateway subjects such as Mathematics, where participation increased, but performance declined.
Still, there is reason for cautious optimism. Fewer students are falling out entirely. More are writing on time. More no-fee schools are producing strong results.
As the Zero Dropout Campaign put it: “Celebrating matric results must go hand in hand with asking who was left behind and why.”
South Africa’s education system is not fixed. But the 2025 matric results suggest it may finally be finding steadier ground – provided honesty, investment and student support remain at the centre of the conversation.
