Latest crime stats confirm 10-year-long upward trajectory, and no plan to fix it

Police Minister Bheki Cele’s delivery of the crime statistics on Friday confirmed a continuous upward trajectory of crime, which is likely to continue until police identify improvement opportunities and clean out corrupt and incompetent leaders.

The statistics for the April to June 2021 quarter showed a double-digit rise in crimes compared to the same period last year. This, however, should not be a shock, according to Cele, as the period was skewed by the country being under lockdown level 5 in the period last year, and criminals were supposedly also stuck at home.

Murder had increased by 66.2% with 5 760 people killed in the three months. 10 006 people were raped during the same period, amounting to 72.4% increase compared to the same quarter last year.

In comparison to the same period in 2019 prior the pandemic, murder has increased by a much lower 6.7%, rape by 2.8% and trio crimes (house robbery, hijacking and business robberies) going up by 13.1%, Cele said.

Comparing the numbers to years considered more “normal”, doesn’t paint a much rosier picture.

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Murder still up significantly

But the statistics paint a worse picture when the same period in 2017 is assessed, said Stellenbosch University policing and crime expert Dr Guy Lamb.

“If you look back at April to June in 2017, murder has increased by 19% if you compare from this year and then. Murder has been following an upward trajectory. The same with attempted murder. In 2017 compared to now, it is a 15% increase. It is a worrying upper-trend which I have been seeing… for the past ten years,” he said.

“The stats on rape are not reliable because so few people report it… The lockdown has driven and exacerbated the factors that caused it before and have increased it. Unfortunately, the stats are never painting a true picture. If we compare to 2018, there has been an increase in rape but not significant.”

Rape and gender-based violence cause for concern

Nearly 20% of reported cases of common assault and assault with intention to do grievous bodily harmed were domestic violence related in the three months.

This means that more than 15 000 of the 76 936 common assault and assault GBH cases involved a victim who was in a relationship with the perpetrator, said Cele.

“The top three areas of occurrence of these assaults are at the home of the victim or perpetrator, public places and liquor outlets. Arguments are by far the leading causes of the assaults,” said Cele.

Rape increased by 4 201 cases compared to the skewed period of last year, but a smaller percentage compared to the normal period prior the lockdown.

“A sample of 5 439 rape cases revealed that 3 766 of the rape incidents took place at the home of the victim or the home of the rapist. 487 rape cases were domestic violence related,” said Cele.

But such statistics on rape and domestic violence are not entirely accurate, as they were unreported, said Lamb. He said causes could also be driven by alcohol consumption, economic pressures, and loss of status.

“The stats on rape are not reliable because so few people report it… The lockdown has driven and exacerbated the factors that caused it before and have increased it. Loss of income in many families leads to fighting, and that fighting leads to violence.

“Unfortunately, the stats are never painting a true picture. If we compare to 2018, there has been an increase in rape but not significant.”

Resources and budget cuts hurt enforcement

Cele admitted that the police service had many challenges which needed to be fixed in order to “win the war” against crime. These include lack of personnel, an R11 billion budget cut, and the service’s reduced retirement age of 55 years.

“[In 2020/21] we did not recruit any new members of the police service to come and join the organisation and in the year 2020, we were supposed to have trained about 7 000 and this year a similar number – meaning we have missed about 14 000 new entrants.”

“What is not usually known is that the government has allowed police to age at 55, where normally it would be 60 years. Many of them have left the organisation at 55. We have an organisation that is cut at the top, yet there are no new entrants below, which [affects] the proportionality,” said Cele.

The police service had, however, received a huge 65% budget increase between 2012 and 2020, which was not effectively used on resources. Instead, their ability to solve murders and robberies declined during that period, said Institute for Security Studies senior researcher Gareth Newham.

“In that same time period, the ability of police to solve murders declined by 38% and the ability to solve robberies, which are driving many murders, dropped by 24%.

So, you have a big increase in the police budget and a big decrease in the police performance and ability to address robberies and murders,” Newham said.

Solution is to deal with “serious crisis of top leadership”

Flattening the upward curve of crime in the country would require getting rid of incompetent and corrupt top officials in the police service, while adhering to recommendations in the National Development Plan, said Newham.

“It is what the NDP terms a ‘serious crisis of top leadership’. That is when the people who have the most authority and power are not working together to a clear plan as they don’t trust each other and are at each other’s throat. There should be various systems to make sure police planning is done and resources are properly allocated and distributed to those who need them and that police officers who are corrupt are removed.”

“To date, there has been no clear plans to clean up top leadership and recommendations by the NDP have been ignored. Until we see a clear plan to fix the top leadership, we won’t see a major improvement,” Newham said.

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An alternative solution would be for the police service to use the opportunity to improve community relationships while working with other government departments to deal with socio-economic issues which lead to crime, Lamb said.

“You can’t reduce crime unless you have a good relationship with the community members… If you look at crime and have the same policing model you are using at the moment, we will continue to see a gradual rise in crimes,” he said.

rorisangk@citizen.co.za