Ace Magashule’s road back could affect ANC

The dissatisfaction among ANC grassroots members in the Free State and North West could affect the ruling party’s performance in the 2024 national elections, but former secretary-general Ace Magashule will be an important factor – even when he’s outside the ruling party.

North-West University’s Prof André Duvenhage said the ongoing unhappiness by ANC branches in North West and other provinces could open the gap for the expelled Magashule to make a political comeback – maybe as part of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).

He said Magashule’s expulsion was not the end for the politician, as he may come back sooner than expected – especially if the EFF offered him a senior position like that of secretary-general.

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He could come back sooner, depending on negotiations with EFF leader Julius Malema, who confirmed he was in talks with Magashule and some ANC leaders to persuade them to join his party.

But another political analyst, Prof Sethulego Matebesi from the University of the Free State, believes Magashule would not make headway outside the ANC. He said joining the EFF would have reputational damage for him.

“We all know that it is going to be very difficult for ntate Magashule to make a comeback to the ANC,” he said.

“Well, there will be a lot of questions if he joins the EFF. By joining a political party which had been almost like your enemy will also have some reputational damage [for Magashule]. I think ntate Magashule will be very cautious. He might meet and discuss with Malema but whether he will join the EFF is something else.”

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Matebesi said Magashule did not have many options as he will be reluctant to join the Africa Transformation Movement (ATM) which he and other RET members were once accused of establishing. It’s a difficult choice for him.

“If he joins the EFF, does it mean the ANC is going to lose support? No, I don’t think so, but few supporters may join him. But people have realised it’s really cold outside the ANC,“ said Matebesi.

“Some of his supporters, who have key positions in the government of the ANC, will be very cautious to follow him.”

Duvenhage said the discord among ANC branches over Magashule and the 2021 local election irregularities was indicative of the distrust in ANC leaders by the people at grassroots.

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